Embracing the Momentum: Why the Next Commission Should Prioritize EU Enlargement and Reform

Sebastian Schäffer, MA and Francesco Danieli, MA

A priority for the next European Commission (EC) should be to finalise accession negotiations with the current EU candidates as well as implement the necessary institutional reforms to ensure the future of European integration within its mandate. A deepening of the EU by establishing further areas of responsibility and reform has in the past been in conjunction with widening, or enlarging, the Union. Now the dual endeavour serves as an excuse: in order to enlarge, reform is needed; if there is no reform, then we cannot enlarge. It is time to end this vicious cycle.

Recommendations 

1. The time to be brave is now: After losing two windows of opportunity (Brexit, 2016-2020, and the Conference on the Future of Europe, 2021-2022) to overcome the apparent contradiction between deepening and widening the EU, the European Commission must seize the momentum caused by the Russian aggression against Ukraine to be ambitious again. Instead of making vague announcements, it is necessary to lay out a clear roadmap for a new treaty with new members, implement qualified majority decision in all areas, and introduce the right of initiative for the European Parliament (EP). Given that the average time span for negotiations in all past enlargements was 3.5 years, while the very difficult transition from the Treaty of Nice to Lisbon took 5.5 years, it is not unreasonable to apply these changes by 2030.
2. It‘s not just the economy, stupid: The EU member states should switch the focus from budgetary issues to the necessity of strengthening our neighbours’ democracies and to the advantages of further single market integration. While there will always be net contributors and net recipients, this calculation does not sufficiently capture the benefits of the EU for the member states: Germany contributed 32.76 billion euros to the EU longterm budget (MFF) 2021-27; France provided 22.45 billion. However, the estimated benefits of the single market for France corresponded to 124.42 billion euros, compared to 208.02 billion for Germany, more than 67% higher.
   So far, every enlargement has benefitted both the applicants and the member states. This is especially the case in the direct neighbourhood, which means that the Danube Region would especially profit. Moreover, and most importantly, we must remember that the majority of past enlargements aimed at strengthening and stabilising the democracy, not the economy, of the candidate countries. This should also be the current European perspective, and the next reforms should go in this direction.
3. Become pro- instead of reactive by developing a plan A before B: The EU Commission should be ready to face the possibility of slowdown or failure both in the accession negotiations and in its procedure of reform. Even in the case of a setback, the Treaty of Lisbon still offers possibilities of internal reform e.g. with passerelle clauses without needing a new treaty. The fear of failure has paralysed the process – but death by being afraid is still dead. Jean Monnet wrote in his Memoirs that “Europe will be forged in crises and will be the sum of the solutions adopted for those crises,” but the EU and its members must learn to be proactive too, and not just respond to current and unexpected necessities.