Daniel Martinek at the Three Seas Initiative Summit 2023

On 6–7 September 2023, the eighth edition of the Three Seas Summit and Business Forum took place in Bucharest. Romania became the first of the states participating in the Initiative to host these events for the second time, after the editions held in 2018, also in Romanian capital. Daniel Martínek, IDM Research Associate, attended the event on behalf of IDM Director Sebastian Schäffer and was a speaker at the side event “Democratic Values: Challenges and Opportunities”, co-organised by the Romanian Ministry of Education and the National University of Political Studies and Public Administration (SNSPA), on the occasion of a new edition of the Three Seas Business Forum. Schäffer has contributed with a working paper on Austria and 3SI to the Anticipating the 2023 Three Seas Initiative Bucharest Summit. Advancing the common agenda”. 

Martínek spoke on the panel on “Regional perspective over the 3SI challenges and opportunities” analysing issues such as societal polarisation, political fragmentation or disinformation and propaganda in the framework of the member states of the Three Seas Initiative, currently the most ambitious regional and geopolitical cooperation format in Europe. 

During the pivotal summit, Greece was accepted as the 13th member of the Initiative and the Republic of Moldova was granted the status of an associate partner after Ukraine (granted in 2022). Hundreds of guests, representatives of the business environment, experts and decision-makers attended the 3SI Business Forum to discuss strategies and investments in three main areas of the Initiative – Energy, Transportation and Digitalisation – in order to unlock the full potential of this geopolitically growing region of Central, Eastern and South-eastern Europe. 

More information: 

Der Aufstieg des Ostens

Kinga Brudzinska wurde kürzlich in einem Artikel von Die Welt zitiert, der die wirtschaftliche Transformation in Mittel- und Osteuropa (CEE) analysiert und wie diese Länder – zum Beispiel in der Digitalisierung von FinanzdienstleistungenWesteuropa überholt haben.

Lesen Sie den Artikel hier.

“Black Sea Geopolitics and Ukraine’s Future” by Jack Gill

Jack Gill (IDM) has recently published a policy paper “Black Sea Geopolitics and Ukraine’s Future” (Year 4, No. 1-2, 2023. EU and Western Balkan states), which explores Russia’s current ‘grand strategy’ and its consequences for Ukraine and the rest of Europe, and suggests some ways in which Ukraine’s security may be guaranteed after Russia’s war of aggression. The paper was published as part of the proceedings of a conference on “Developing society’s post-war resilience in Ukraine – Perspectives and challenges – defence of democracy”.

Hoffen auf Europa: alte und neue Versprechen einer gemeinsamen Zukunft

Melanie Jaindl moderierte ein Gespräch zwischen dem deutschen Botschafter in Slowenien Adrian Pollmann und den Teilnehmer*innen der Sommerakademie des Max Weber-Programmes der bayerischen Landesbegabtenförderung (Studienstiftung des deutschen Volkes). Inhaltlich drehte sich das Gespräch um die regionale Zusammenarbeit, nicht zuletzt im Hinblick auf die jüngsten schweren Unwetter in Slowenien und die Klimakrise. Darüber hinaus wurde die EU-Erweiterung am Westbalkan, diplomatische Arbeit vor und nach dem letzten slowenischen Regierungswechsel, die Bedeutung des Schengenbeitritts Kroatiens für Slowenien und die gesamte EU sowie der Krieg in der Ukraine diskutiert. 

Malwina Talik about tensions on the Poland-Belarus border for Eurasia Diary EN

In an interview for Eurasia Diary English, Malwina Talik (IDM) explained why she finds opening of a new front in Poland unrealistic under current circumstances and how Poland perceives incidents at the border to Belarus. 

Slovakia ahead of the parliamentary elections: End of military support for Ukraine?

After months of political turmoil, the Slovaks will decide on a new parliament in the upcoming early elections in September. The new government could align Slovakia with the Russia-friendly states in Central Europe. Daniel Martínek analyses the election scenarios and their implications in the region. 

It is hard to imagine a more challenging time to govern than what former Slovak Prime Minister Igor Matovič experienced. The Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the related migration, as well as inflation and energy crises have certainly contributed significantly to the downfall of his governing coalition, which was formed after the 2020 parliamentary elections. However, the main cause of instability and the potential collapse of the government stemmed not only from all these crises but also from a series of personal hostilities between the leaders of the coalition parties. The vote of no confidence and the gradual withdrawal of coalition partners and their ministers eventually culminated in the establishment of an expert government in June of this year. It is intended to lead the country until the early elections scheduled for 30 September. 

Four opposition parties, amidst three years of internal and inter-party conflicts, have pledged to establish a stable government. According to current opinion polls, Slovak citizens are inclined to believe in this commitment, especially as all the former governing parties are grappling to surpass the five per cent electoral threshold. Robert Fico, the former long-serving prime minister and leader of the left-wing nationalist party SMER-SSD, currently holds the highest approval rating (20 per cent as per July polls). His party promises experience and order, with a particular focus on countering the liberal “Progressive Slovakia” party led by Michal Šimečka, which, according to current polls, might secure second place with around 16 per cent of the vote. 

Rise of political defectors 

Behind them in third place (at 11 per cent) are the defectors from the SMER-SSD party, who have been organising themselves under the leadership of Petr Pellegrini, the successor to Fico as prime minister (2018-2020), within the party “HLAS – Social Democracy” (HLAS-SD) since 2020. Although party members attempted to distance themselves from the corrupt and mafia-associated SMER party in response to the lost elections three years ago, many Slovaks still view them as partly responsible for the decline of the rule of law and the erosion of democratic institutions during the years of the SMER government. 

Since 2021, former members of the “People’s Party Our Slovakia” have also joined the “Republic” movement. According to current election forecasts, the national-conservative party led by Milan Uhrík can expect to secure around 10 per cent of the vote, which means that seats in the parliament – whether within the governing coalition or the opposition – are guaranteed for them. Although the four party leaders swiftly ruled out cooperation with one or another party upon media inquiry, various post-election scenarios for collaboration are conceivable at this point. However, one thing is certain: the majorities in the new parliament will significantly hinge on which small parties surpass the five per cent threshold and thereby become the “kingmakers” after the election. 

Scenarios: Return of old suspects and their controversial mafia-like politics? 

If the “Bulgarian” scenario – meaning the impossibility of coalition formation and recurring snap elections – does not occur, and the victorious parties reach an agreement, two directions of post-election development can be anticipated. The future government could form from a coalition of the parties “HLAS-SD” and “Progressive Slovakia”, alongside the participation of smaller parties such as “KDH” (Christian Democratic Movement), “SaS” (Freedom and Solidarity), and “Sme Rodina” (We Are a Family). A clear pro-European and pro-Atlantic foreign policy direction, coupled with continued efforts to combat corruption, enhance judicial independence, and build trust in governmental institutions, would be expected in such a case for the upcoming electoral cycle. 

Another post-election scenario might not appear as promising to proponents of the EU project and transatlantic cooperation. This year’s election could mean the return of experienced Prime Minister Robert Fico and his party SMER-SSD, which, despite its willingness to form a coalition with its social-democratic offshoot party HLAS-SD, possesses limited coalition potential. This could compel Fico’s party not only to partner with the HLAS-SD party but also to join forces with the nationalist “Republic” party, labelled as radical and extremist by some experts. By forming a coalition alongside the SNS party (Slovak National Party), these four parties could even secure an absolute majority in the parliament. The revival of the SMER-SSD party is viewed by many as a resurgence of party members associated with corruption and controversial political practices. After a three-year hiatus, a revival of a mafia-like political culture could be on the horizon. The end of this culture was the hope of many protesters during the mass demonstrations triggered by the murder of investigative journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancée Martina Kušnírová in 2018, which rallied against the government. 

Pro-Western liberals versus pro-Russian conservatives  

Dissatisfaction with current Slovak domestic and foreign policy, deteriorating living conditions due to ongoing crises and the war in Ukraine, as well as frustration with the conflict-ridden government of the past three years are leading significant portions of the Slovak population to support parties that offer simple – often populist and radical – solutions. This explains the current high popularity of the SMER-SSD party as a symbol of corruption, as well as the extremist, strongly nationalist Republic party. 

Such a government coalition would not only deal a heavy blow to the development of liberal democracy in the country, but with the involvement of the Republic party, Slovakia could follow the ideological path of the Hungarian Fidesz party or the Polish PiS party. Equally important, however, is that these elections are also of fundamental importance at the regional and European level. In the event of Fico’s return as prime minister, which will depend on the support of the Republic movement led by Uhrík, in addition to a strongly EU-sceptic and anti-Western foreign policy, an end to Slovak military support for Ukraine is to be expected. This development would be supplemented by a clear rejection of EU sanctions against Russia and the restoration of friendly relations with the Russian Federation. Both party leaders do not hide their support for Orbán’s style of neutrality and have even become some of the biggest disseminators of pro-Russian propaganda in the country, as evidenced by Uhrík’s speeches and Fico’s social media activities. 

Decreasing support for Ukraine? 

These increasing pro-Russian narratives and sympathies are not unique to Slovakia. They can be observed across nearly all European countries, as evidenced by the growing support for parties like the FPÖ in Austria or the AfD in certain German states. While the Republic party, unlike the SMER-SSD party, consistently questions Slovakia’s membership in the EU and NATO, the country will likely remain firmly anchored in Euro-Atlantic structures even after the election. 

However, an entirely different dynamic could emerge in Central Europe following the elections, where Slovakia, by discontinuing its military support for Ukraine, might align with the ranks of so-called neutral states, like Hungary or Austria. Ultimately, this could also signify a realignment of forces within the currently geopolitically inactive Visegrád Group. As a result, two camps would emerge: those actively providing military and humanitarian support to Ukraine (Czech Republic, Poland) and those refusing to provide arms to the beleaguered state while aiming to maintain close relations with Moscow (Hungary, Slovakia). Such a development could contribute to even greater dysfunctionality within this once-significant Central European cooperation format. 

The original version of the article (in German) has been published at Eastblog of the University of Vienna and in the daily newspaper DerStandard.  

Eastblog

DerStandard

Book recommendations

 

Sebastian Schäffer

Milan Radin: Der Tormann, Leykam (2021)

For this summer, I recommend a lighter reading, which combines two of my favourite things: The Danube Region and football. The story follows Helmut Duckadam, a Romanian goalkeeper, who saved four penalties in the European Cup Final 1986 against FC Barcelona, ensuring the victory of Steaua București. It taught me a lot about Banat Swabians, Arad County, Romanian football and the country in general. Erhard Busek gave me the book and it had sat on my shelf for far too long. I’m glad I finally read it. The mixed narrative style of Milan Radin might be an acquired taste, however, for me it made it easier to put down and pick up again. Despite knowing how the career of Duckadam would develop, I felt myself rooting for him while reading, which made it quite engaging for me.   

 

Daniela Apaydin 

Summer in Odessa; Irina Kilimnik (2023) 

When bombs fall, dreams collapse along with buildings. Before the war, that meant feather-light summer evenings by the sea in Odessa, love-filled glances between friends, family conflicts, and everyday problems. “Summer in Odessa” tells the story of a city where all of this was possible because the war had not yet torn craters through the cities and hearts of the country and its people. In the summer of 2014, it was evident that the country was in turmoil. However, Olga, a medical student, commutes without much interest in politics, somewhat aimlessly navigating between her family’s expectations, her imposed studies, and a few complicated relationships. Gradually, the personal and political developments in Olga’s life intersect, leading her to make a momentous decision. Irina Kilimnik’s fluidly narrated family saga is an endearing love letter to a city where, hopefully, dreaming will once again be pleasant. 

Sophia Beiter 

Picnic on Ice (original Russian title “Smert’ postronnego”); Andrej Kurkow

“Picnic on Ice” tells the story of Viktor, a loner who writes obituaries for the living and gets entangled in the workings of the Ukrainian mafia. His roommate is a depressed penguin who lives in the bathtub. Unpretentiously, satirically, and melancholically, Andrej Kurkow takes us into the world of a failed writer in post-communist Kyiv of the nineties. 

 

Darija Benic

Trilogy “Brda od pelina” (“Wormwood hills”), which consists of the books: “S one bande moje gore” (“On the other side of my mountain”), “S ove bande moje gore” (On this side of my mountain”) and “Kastigulja”; Jasenka Lalović (only in Montenegrin)

The trilogy “Brda od pelina” is an emotional story about the role of women in Montenegrin society – a kind of tribute to women who stoically bore the burden of the times they lived in, and who were unfairly pushed aside. From book to book, the story shows how their destinies come together with all the customary, linguistic and cultural diversity in the period from the end of the 19th century to the capitulation of Italy in the Second World War. 

 

Did you know that Readers of Europe 2023 at the EU Library this year is focusing on books by female authors? The permanent representations are recommending the best women writers from their countries. Learn more here.

 

Kinga Brudzińska 

Brussels Alphabet; Maciej Popowski (in Polish only, 2015) 

Despite its title and format suggesting otherwise, this book is not a comprehensive guide to the European Union. Rather, it takes on a half-joking, half-serious approach, offering a subjective and literary portrayal of the Brussels microcosm in its various aspects: local and international, historical and political, moral and cultural. Through its pages, one gains insights into the workings of the European Union, office life, prominent figures in the Brussels theatre, and most importantly, the experience of Central Europeans living in Brussels. 

Lucas Décorne 

The Globalization Myth: Why Regions Matter; Shannon K. O’Neil (2022)

For this summer, dive into this book, which opens a fresh perspective on globalisation, revealing that the real story of the global economy over the past four decades is not just about traditional notions of globalisation. Instead, the book explores the significance of regionalisation and its potential implications for economic competitiveness and prosperity, offering valuable insights for anyone interested in understanding the dynamics of the modern global marketplace. 

 

Jack Gill 

The Culture Map; Erin Meyer (2014)

In areas of great cultural and linguistic diversity, like the Danube Region, cross-border exchange and cooperation between peoples can often be challenging. Moreover, even learning about other cultures can leave you ill-prepared for encounters with people from other countries. I chose this book because the author, Erin Meyer, offers ways to measure the “distance” between cultures using a number of metrics that measure specific traits common to all cultures. For instance, in some cultures, decisions are reached through consensus in flatter hierarchies, where the boss is just another team player, while in other cultures strict hierarchies ensure top-down decision-making and that people know their place in relation to their superiors and subordinates. To learn where your own culture sits in relation to others, and how to engage with people from other cultures, I recommend this book.  

Daniel Martínek 

Cities of the World; Georg Braun and Franz Hogenberg (1572-1617)

For many, summer is a symbol of travelling and discovering new places. This collection of more than 350 historical engravings of important cities around the world is sure to inspire you as you plan your next adventures. Looking at this or that plan of a city from the time of the Renaissance makes you want to visit places across Europe, many of them also in the Danube Region. As a trained historian, I was particularly pleased when I was gifted the book last Christmas. 

 

Malwina Talik 

How to Feed a Dictator; Witold Szabłowski (2019) 

Reportage is to Poland what crime stories are to Scandinavia. Polish non-fiction writing has gained international recognition thanks to authors like Ryszard Kapuscinski, who paved the way for others to follow, such as Justyna Kopinska, Wojciech Jagielski, Wojciech Tochman, and the author of the book I recommend this summer – Witold Szabłowski. 

“How to Feed a Dictator” was presented to the IDM by the Polish Institute during one of the IDM Melanges. I selected this book because, through its witty style and personal stories of chefs, it provides a sobering reminder of how authoritarians and dictators can gain and maintain power for decades in any place around the world when the circumstances are conducive. The book offers insights into how people may succumb to the charm of dictators, even when they are aware of their crimes (“but he always took care of his family,” “he was generous/modest,” “he had such a difficult life,” “others were even worse”), or adapt to survive in unpredictable and often cruel environments. 

This is an excellent summer read as it is engaging and easy to follow, while also delving into profound questions about how societies and political systems operate (you may even discover some interesting recipes, though dining like a dictator might not be your preference). 

The book is available in Polish, English and German. 

Péter Techet 

The Life and Death of States. Central Europe and the Transformation of Modern Sovereignty; Natasha Wheatley (2023)

Habsburg Central Europe is considered a “laboratory” for historical research, as Habsburg Studies must develop new concepts to describe the multiethnic, multireligious, and legal complexity of the former Danube Monarchy. Transnationality, national indifference, multiple identities, cross-border cultures – Habsburg Studies offers fresh perspectives to historians from diverse regions and time periods. In her new book, the Australian (not Austrian!) historian Natasha Wheatley delves into the legal ideas that emerged in the Habsburg Monarchy, foreshadowing postmodern, post-national approaches. The title of Wheatley’s book not only describes the disappearance of old states and the emergence of new ones after 1918 but also traces how Central European legal ideas envisioned transnational concepts beyond statehood during the interwar period. For those seeking to understand present-day debates on the European Union or transnational cooperation from a “longue durée” perspective, especially in the context of (post-)Habsburg Central Europe, this book is a fascinating read. Moreover, it is written in a manner that is understandable even for non-historians and non-lawyers. 

Sebastian Schäffer for Eurasia Diary English

In an interview for Eurasia Dairy, Sebastian Schäffer, IDM Director, put the losses of European companies in the Russian Federation into perspective and emphasized that we should not forget the price people in Ukraine are paying in this war. Read the whole interview in English here.

Also available in Azerbaijani.