IDM Short Insights 28: March of a Million Hearts

 

Hundreds of thousands of Poles marched through the streets of Poland’s capital in a ‚March of a Million Hearts‘ on 1 October 2023. The event was initiated by Donald Tusk, currently the leader of the largest opposition party Civiv Platform, to mobilise opposition voters ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections. However, not all opposition parties joined. In the newest Short Insight, Malwina Talik (IDM), who observed it in Warsaw, explains the magnitude and role of this mass gathering in the ongoing election campaign and analyzes what impact it may have on the election results on 15 October 2023.


Transcript:

I am in Warsaw in Poland where hundreds of thousands of people from all across the country, not only from the capital, came today to join the “March of a Million hearts”. This is already the second rally of this type. The first one took place in June and back then it was meant as a protest against the so-called “Lex Tusk”. It was a proposal made by the Law and Justice party, which, if implemented, would have hindered Donal Tusk from running in the parliamentary elections. The outrage was huge and up to half a million people came to Warsaw back then to show that they disagree with such policies. The number (of demonstrators) was so huge that it surpassed the expectations of the organisers and they decided to use this mobilisation and organise another march and that’s the one that is taking place today. But what it is all about today? Donald Tusk, when asked in an interview, what are the rules of this march, this rally, said that the rules are simple, if you love Poland, come and join us in Warsaw. He indirectly referred to the fact that Poles who oppose the Law and Justice party are labelled as “fake Poles”, “Poles of the worst sort”, so this rally is very much about demonstrating that these Poles also have Poland in their hearts. This is also a new slogan of the Civic Platform, Civic Coalition, a coalition led by Donald Tusk. But this rally goes also beyond reclaiming the public space, public discourse on patriotism. The goal is actually to mobilise voters, especially those undecided voters, two weeks before parliamentary elections. You may ask yourself if a rally can change the results of the elections, of this campaign. Some say that not necessarily, that it can actually disadvantage smaller parties, smaller opposition parties because their voters would turn to the Civic Coalition and some of the smaller parties will be even at risk of not joining the Sejm. However, if we consider how many undecided voters are still there and if they decide to cast a vote, most of them are women, most of them oppose the Law and Justice party, this could still change the electoral result.
And this is who the fight is now about. In two weeks we will know if this rally has borne fruits and made a change or if Law and Justice wins the unprecedented third term.

Kann die Schweiz neutral bleiben?

Der Krieg gegen die Ukraine löst auch in der Schweiz eine Neutralitätsdebatte aus. Eine Änderung ist nicht in Sicht.

Unser Kollege Péter Techet über die Nachbarländer Österreichs:

Die Presse

Wieder keine ungarische Partei im slowakischen Parlament?

Bei den Wahlen in der Slowakei Ende September hat keine der antretenden Parteien der ungarischen Minderheit eine Chance, in das Parlament einzuziehen. Warum wird die ungarische Minderheit keine Vertretung im neuen slowakischen Parlament haben?

Unser Kollege Péter Techet über die Nachbarländer Österreichs:

Eastblog

DerStandard 

Großes Goldenes Ehrenzeichen der Republik an Friedrich Faulhammer

IDM at the youth event “Young Danube Bridges”

On 19 September, Sophia Beiter attended the event “Young Danube Bridges” at the Collegium Hungaricum in Vienna. Organized by the regional cultural advisor from the Danube Swabian Central Musuem in Ulm, the seminar was part of the project “International Youth Encounters in the Danube Region” and aimed to facilitate the exchange of knowledge and ideas on key issues concerning the area. 

Participants from Germany, Hungary, Croatia, Montenegro, Romania, Bulgaria and Moldova came together to learn about the EU Strategy for the Danube Region. The young people, who are all learning German, presented their countries, brought some typical food from their region and gathered knowledge about the Danube region during creative games and interactive activities. Alongside the IDM, several cultural institutes and embassies of the respective countries were present at the event. 

IDM visiting fellow prof. Ulrich Schneckener in the Slovak media

Prof. Ulrich Schneckener, IDM visiting fellow has been interviewed by Dennik N, a Slovak daily newspaper. 

In the interview he has emphasized that the annexation of Crimea in 2014 did not change much in the German-Russian relations as Germany believed that security in Europe was not possible without Russia. Prof. Schneckener pointed out that Germany forgot that Putin used gas as a weapon as was the case of Eastern European countries, especially in the case of Ukraine. Ironically after the annexation of Crimea Germany’s dependence on Russian gas even increased and part of Germany’s energy infrastructure was sold to Russian firms.

IDM Short Insights 27: Russian attacks on Ukrainian Danube ports

 

The Danube Region is facing increased Russian missile strikes, posing a threat to the area’s stability, especially near the Romanian border. NATO has been briefed on the situation but found no evidence of deliberate Russian aggression against allied territories. Romania can invoke Article 4 of the NATO Treaty for consultations. Romania’s Ministry of Defense is prepared to respond to an attack on its soil, but invoking Article 5 is not automatic. Rather than blaming Romania for its proximity to targets, the focus should be on condemning Russia’s attacks and understanding their broader implications, including the weaponization of food.


Transcript:

The Danube Region has come under direct attack. Following Moscow’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal, Russian missile strikes targeting Ukrainian ports along the Danube River have significantly increased over the past weeks. The Kremlin is once again threatening the civilian population and risking the region’s safety and stability, as the attacks are happening close to the Romanian border, an EU and NATO member state.   

Dylan White, the acting spokesperson for NATO, disclosed this week that Romania’s ambassador has briefed the alliance about the drone fragments that have been found. He emphasized that there is no evidence suggesting any deliberate aggression by Russia against allied territories. However, Romania retains the option to invoke Article 4 of the NATO Treaty, which calls for collective consultations among member states to safeguard political independence, territorial integrity, and overall security. 

The Ministry of Defense of Romania has asserted that should an attack occur on Romanian soil, the country’s armed forces are fully prepared to respond appropriately. This doesn’t necessarily mean further escalation, as some observers are suggesting. Invoking Article 5, the core of the alliance’s collective defense, is no automatism. Following an attack, the NATO state first has to decide whether or not to ask for support and the response taken is then determined by all members.  

Rather than fearing an Article 5 scenario – so effectively blaming Romania for their border being too close to militarily irrelevant targets – we should ultimately be much more concerned about the Russian Federation’s continued heinous attacks, deliberately causing civilian casualties. We need to understand that Putin is taking all of these factors into account, including the further weaponizing of food against the weakest parts of global society.   

IDM Team at the Political Academy’s Campus Open Day

On 15 September, the IDM took part in the Political Academy’s Campus Open Day. Sophia Beiter, Kamila Bogdanova and Peter Techet represented the IDM by showcasing our different formats, such as the Info Europa magazine and Policy Papers. Guests were also invited to take part in our “story one”-challenge “My Danube story”.  

The evening itself featured a full programme organised by several partners of the Political Academy. Alongside booths representing a wide range of think tanks and other organisations, the approximately 150 guests could get involved in 13 content workshops, guided tours of the premises and mini exhibitions. 

Is The European Union falling apart? – EXCLUSİVE COMMENTARY from EXPERT

In a recent commentary for ED News, Sebastian Schäffer, director of the Institute for Danube Region and Central Europe (IDM), addressed Germany’s dissatisfaction with the European Union (EU) and discussed the possibility of Germany leaving the Union. However, Schäffer clarified that the German government has no serious plans to leave the EU in the near future, stating that criticism of Brussels is not uncommon. Schäffer emphasized the importance of acknowledging the achievements of European integration and warned against the negative consequences of destroying the EU.

Read the whole commentary here.

Visiting Fellow – Prof. Dr. Ulrich Schneckener

The Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe (IDM) hosted Prof. Dr. Ulrich Schneckener, Professor of International Relations & Peace and Conflict Studies at Osnabrück University, as Visiting Fellow in September.   

On 12 September,  Schneckener held a talk at GLOBSEC, Bratislava, on “Russia’s War of Aggression as ‘Zeitenwende’? Implications for European Security.” He also gave an interview for the Slovak daily newspaper “Dennik” on Germany’s Russia policy and European security and engaged in conversation on Slovak and European politics with Tomás Strázay, director of the Slovak Foreign Policy Association.  

Together with Sebastian Schäffer, director of the IDM, Scheckener gave a presentation at the Political Academy in Vienna on 13 September on “Prospects for EU enlargement and security – the idea of a Greater European Council,” analysing the challenges for EU enlargement and security issues. 

Giving an insight into his current research, Schneckener gave a talk followed by a discussion on “Push back Frontex? Politicizing European Border Security” at IDM on 21 September. In his talk, Schneckener distinguished the different profiles of Frontex-critical NGOs and activists and analysed their role in the politicization of the EU border force. 

 

This may be of interest to you: 

Press release (in German)

Push back Frontex? Politicizing European Border Security