IDM Short Insights 37: New EU Commission: Will von der Leyen secure another term as President?
On 18 July, the European Parliament will vote on Ursula von der Leyen for a second term as EU Commission President. In the newest Short Insight Sophia Beiter (IDM) explains under what conditions the re-election will be successful. Von der Leyen needs at least 361 of the 720 votes. She will need the support of the EPP, S&D, Renew and potentially the Greens or the ECR. If von der Leyen’s election is successful, the process of the formation of the new Commission can begin.
Transcript:
I am here in the hemicycle of the European Parliament in Brussels, where the Members of the EU Parliament meet to hold debates and plenary sessions. And it will be the newly elected 720 Members of the European Parliament who will soon decide on the fate of EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
Right after the EU elections in June 2024, the race for the EU top jobs started. By now, EU leaders have approved Ursula von der Leyen for a second term as EU Commission President, Kaja Kallas as High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Antonio Costa as European Council President. But regarding Kallas and von der Leyen, the last say in the matter has the European Parliament.
Ursula von der Leyen needs to be voted by the European Parliament and she needs at least 361 out of the 720 votes. That means that she has to secure votes not only in her own political group, the conservative European People’s Party, but also in other political groups, traditionally the Socialists and Democrats and Renew Europe. Theoretically, the votes from these three groups would suffice for a majority, but not all parties in these groups support von der Leyen. And as the vote is secret, in the end the decision is up to every single Member of Parliament themselves. That is why Ursula von der Leyen might also seek support from the Greens or the European Conservatives and Reformists.
Furthermore, the dynamics in the European Parliament have still been shifting and things are moving very fast these days here in Brussels. Recently, not one but two new far right groups were formed in the European Parliament. The Patriots for Europe, consisting of many parties that previously belonged to the Identity and Democracy Group, and the Europe of Sovereign Nations, a far right group founded by the German AfD.
If the election of Ursula von der Leyen for a second term as EU Commission President is successful, the formation of the new Commission can begin. The Commission President selects the Commissioners based on nominations from each of the 27 EU countries. The Commissioners will also be assigned specific policy portfolios. After that, the commissioner-designates will be assessed by the EU Parliament in public hearings, followed by a vote of the EU Parliament. Only after this process is completed will the new European Commission be ready to start its work for the EU in the next five years.
